2026-10-25
Strategy clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov
The Screen · Technology · Software - Application
Strategy Inc
MSTR · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $57.4B · 1,511 employees
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.
Not yet scored135.63 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price135.63 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 2 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.26)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $189.36 to $271.26, base estimate $214.02 (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders insiders sold, $422,225, latest filing 2026-10-08
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.26, read 2026-11-03
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price135.63 USD
Fair value214.02
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markdown136.02-0.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 7 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markup126.83+6.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 29% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Distribution98.65+37.5% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 20% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown123.97+9.4% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Strategy Inc holds its Markdown at $135.63. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 52 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 52 days |
| Price at the screen | $135.63 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 5.73 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 3.61 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 13.36% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 13.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 4.07% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 4.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Strategy clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Strategy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 37% discount to our $214.02 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.6% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +59% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $214.02, with a range of $189.36 to $271.26, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsBitcoin bets dressed as corporate shares
Picture a listed company whose main job is to hold Bitcoin and issue shares against it. That is Strategy Inc today. Revenue growth sits at just 12 percent while profit margins sit at zero and return on equity is negative 31 percent. The narrow moat and lack of real operating cash flow make it a pure proxy rather than a software business.
Our fair value sits well above the current price yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The ethical screen clears but the business model fails our test for durable cash generation and predictable earnings. Analyst targets around 250 dollars reflect enthusiasm for the Bitcoin trade, not for the company itself.
Volatility tied to digital assets remains the dominant risk alongside a balance sheet that offers no cushion in a downturn. A low multiple here signals peak exposure rather than value. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 5.7xvery cheap relative to earnings |
| EPS, trailing | -52.33 |
| EPS, forward | 23.67 |
| Revenue growth | -2.5%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 0.0%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -21.6%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| Debt to equity | 0.10minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 4.04comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 3.61much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.07% |
| 52-week range | 81.81 - 258.21 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $57.4B |
| Employees | 1,511 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMSTR trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29
Markdown $146.01
+7.3% Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Markdown $136.02
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Markdown · changed $136.02
-10.1% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Markup $151.29
-5.7% Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352.
2026-10-11
Markup $160.50
+0.0% Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 70%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $352.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Bitcoin Rises, Crypto Miners Sharply Divided As Midterms Dampen AI Outlook Yahoo Finance · 3h ago
- Bitcoin, XRP, crypto stocks surge after GOP loses midterm 2026 Yahoo Finance · 4h ago
- Strategy Gains 7% as Bitcoin Rallies After Midterms, CEO Touts “Bitcoin Capital Cycle” Yahoo Finance · 5h ago
- Michael Saylor Keeps Buying Bitcoin While ETF Investors Sell. Strategy Added 811 Coins While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Saw $405.3 Million Pulled Out In A Single Day Yahoo Finance · 6h ago
- Circle Earnings Show Stablecoins Have Arrived. A Crypto Payoff Could Take Longer. Yahoo Finance · 8h ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Patten Jarrod M | Dir | S - Sale+OE | 2,750 | $422,225 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | buy | 15K–50K |
| 2025-10-21 | Shri Thanedar | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2025-10-21 | Shri Thanedar | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2025-10-21 | Shri Thanedar | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $195.94 | -40.8% | · | $592 | -40.8% |
| 2 months | $128.64 | -9.8% | · | $902 | -9.8% |
| 3 months | $137.34 | -15.5% | · | $845 | -15.5% |
| 6 months | $183.30 | -36.7% | · | $633 | -36.7% |
| 1 year | $391.18 | -70.3% | · | $297 | -70.3% |
| 2 years | $159.99 | -27.5% | · | $725 | -27.5% |
| 3 years | $28.23 | +310.9% | · | $4,109 | +310.9% |
| 5 years | $51.64 | +124.7% | · | $2,247 | +124.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MSTR does next, these words stay.
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