PAYX
Paychex
Industrials · Human Resource & Employment Services · US
$91.33
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

UNKNOWN MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 86%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$32.7B
Trailing P/E
20.16
Forward P/E
15.48
Rev Growth
+19.9%
Profit Margin
26.6%
ROE
Analyst Target
$100.93
Recommendation
HOLD
About Paychex

Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services. The company provides retirement solutions, such as plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services; HCM solutions from recruiting and hiring to retirement; and talent management and talent acquisition services. In addition, it offers payroll solutions, including calculation, preparation, and delivery of employee payroll checks; production of internal accounting records and management reports; preparation of federal, state, and local payroll tax returns; and collection and remittance of clients' payroll obligations. Further, the company provides workforce management solutions; benefits administration solutions; digital marketplace for earned wages, financial wellness solutions, and voluntary lifestyle benefits; HR support to non-payroll clients through HR Partner Plus solution; and insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. Additionally, it offers payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and both virtual and on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative, and other solutions to businesses. It markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $91 against a fair value of $117, a 22% discount. 27% profit margins. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 88% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.30%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.18%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.01%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 80.8
Score Valuation: 73.0
Score Quality: 66.2
Score Combined: 58.0
Fair Value Est: $117.41 · Margin of Safety: +22.2% · Tier: FAIR VALUE

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation99.8
Quality80.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat40.0
Balance Sheet54.4
Debt Purity8.1
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity73.9
Compliance54.5
Tier: SILVER · Score: 65.7 · Rank: #366
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-06-251.31Pending--
2026-03-251.671.71+2.3%
2025-12-191.131.10-3.0%
2025-09-301.201.22+1.4%
2025-06-251.201.19-0.7%
2025-03-261.481.49+0.7%
2024-12-191.121.14+1.6%
2024-10-011.131.18+4.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-02-28$1.8B$560.3M$918.1M$1.4B$792.0M1.56
2025-11-30$1.6B$395.4M$697.8M$1.1B$571.9M1.10
2025-08-31$1.5B$383.8M$675.0M$1.1B$541.9M1.07
2025-05-31$1.4B$297.2M$538.7M$1.0B$431.1M0.82
2025-02-28$1.5B$519.3M$751.5M$1.1B$691.8M1.44
2024-11-30
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-13ROALDSEN ELIZABETHOfficer459$41.3K
2026-05-08VELLI JOSEPH MDirector10,220$619.2K
2026-05-06GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security109,300$10.0M
2026-05-04GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security163,930$15.3M
2026-03-03GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1,104$103.4K
2026-02-04DOODY JOSEPH GDirector1,000$98.8K
2026-02-04BONADIO THOMAS FDirector1,000$98.5K
2026-01-30GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security26,130$2.7M
2026-01-23GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security9,390$1.0M
2026-01-21GOLISANO B THOMASBeneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security239,845$25.8M
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Capital International Investors29.9M$2.9B0.1%
Blackrock Inc.28.4M$2.8B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC21.0M$2.0B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC15.2M$1.5B0.0%
State Street Corporation14.0M$1.4B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC10.3M$996.2M0.0%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.9.4M$909.4M0.0%
Federated Hermes, Inc.5.9M$570.9M0.0%
Morgan Stanley5.3M$513.9M0.0%
Invesco Ltd.5.3M$509.3M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
1
14
3
19 analysts
2 Months Ago
1
14
3
19 analysts
Last Month
1
1
12
3
18 analysts
Current
1
1
13
3
19 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$38.0B
Price/Book
8.66
Analysts
15
Total Revenue (TTM)
$4.0B
Total Debt
$5.0B
Earnings Growth
+9.1%
Dividend Yield
5.4%
Rec. Mean
3.21
Short Ratio
5.46
Short % Float
0.1%

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 58.0 (P92 — top 8.2% of scored tickers). Unknown Moat. Ethical PASS. 15 analysts at Hold.
Price: $91.33 | Target: $101.67 (+11%) | Fair Value: $117.41 (+29%)
Score
58
Moat
UNKNOWN
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+11%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+19.9%
Profit Margin26.6%
Forward P/E15.5
Market Cap$32.7B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-06-25$1.31Pending
2026-03-25$1.67$1.71+2.3%
2025-12-19$1.13$1.10-3.0%
2025-09-30$1.20$1.22+1.4%
2025-06-25$1.20$1.19-0.7%
2025-03-26$1.48$1.49+0.7%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $77.63 (-15%) | Entry: $91.33
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($101.67, 15 analysts)
10$913.30+$103.40 (11%)0.8R
50$4,566.50+$517.00 (11%)0.8R
100$9,133.00+$1,034.00 (11%)0.8R
To Fair Value ($117.41)
10$913.30+$260.80 (29%)1.9R
50$4,566.50+$1,304.00 (29%)1.9R
100$9,133.00+$2,608.00 (29%)1.9R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (5.46 days to cover)
The Verdict
Paychex passes all ethical screens and holds a unknown competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
63.8
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.5%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.9%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-0.44
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
72
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.3x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
QCFS.QA-0.201
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0066.HK-0.159
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Friday
Worst Day
Wednesday
Best Month
May
Worst Month
Jun
Fri-Mon Effect
0.01991604035093946
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+0.5%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+6.9%
3M Return
+8.5%
6M Return
-10.6%
12M Return
-36.8%
Momentum Rank
#2814
Momentum Signal
FLAT

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