Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the Un…
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Paychex holds its Distribution at $114.75. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 64 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 64 days
Price at the screen
$114.75
Valuation
23.47 trailing · 17.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.8
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.31%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $119.91 fair value, 12.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payroll handler sits close to fair value
Every Friday when a small workshop owner hits send on the wage run, Paychex is the quiet system moving the cash. The business delivers 12% revenue growth and 27% profit margins while clearing our ethical screen without flags. At 17.9 times forward earnings it trades almost exactly at our fair value estimate, leaving little room on either side.
That stability explains the hold consensus from fourteen analysts, even if their median target sits a touch lower. The numbers show a reliable cash engine serving millions of modest firms, not a high-growth story priced for perfection.
The unknown moat and single-digit margin of safety are the real limits here. Any slowdown in hiring or fresh payroll competition could close the narrow gap quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAYX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup$124.48+5.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-08-08Markup$118.27+17.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-07-18Markup$100.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-07-03Markup$100.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$100.53Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
