Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Guidewire Software Inc holds its Distribution at $144.98. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$144.98
Valuation
88.94 trailing · 27.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.27%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.71%
Below 5%
Only 4.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +48% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance software that insurers cannot ditch
Picture a claims team at a midsize US insurer trying to switch systems mid storm season. Guidewire sits underneath that daily grind with its PolicyCenter and ClaimCenter tools, now shifting more customers onto the cloud version. Revenue is climbing 27 percent, the business clears an 11 percent profit margin and posts 12 percent ROE, yet the shares trade at 36.6 times forward earnings with only a 2 percent margin of safety to our fair value.
That narrow moat and clean ethical screen keep the name on the list, but the numbers do not scream opportunity. Analysts like the story and cluster around a 201 target, yet the valuation already prices in most of the visible growth and leaves little room for the hiccups that hit software rollouts.
High multiples on a single vertical also mean any slowdown in P&C spending or a longer cloud migration cycle would hit the multiple first. The setup stays steady rather than compelling. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GWRE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markup$192.76+9.8%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$175.59+14.6%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$153.21+25.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 25.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
2026-07-18Markup$122.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
