Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Tyler Technologies holds its Markup at $335.48. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$335.48
Valuation
44.08 trailing · 21.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.9
Beta
0.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.40%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
29.34%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $413.32 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
City Hall Software Priced Well Beyond Its Reach
Tyler Technologies sells the software that keeps US local governments running, from tax collection to court records. At $319 the shares already sit well above our $410 fair value, leaving no margin of safety despite a narrow moat and single-digit revenue growth.
The business earns a modest 13 percent profit margin and just 9 percent ROE while trading on 21.5 times forward earnings. Analysts may still favour the name, yet those multiples already bake in far stronger expansion than the company has delivered.
Public-sector budgets move slowly and competition from larger vendors is rising, so any slowdown in contract wins would quickly expose the thin returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TYL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-15Markup · changed$306.33-1.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $445.
2026-07-18Distribution$312.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $445.
2026-07-03Distribution$312.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$312.07Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
