NAS10026,630−6.36%S&P7,354−4.36%GOLD$4,077+0.10%BTC$76,016−5.46%VIX28.18+69.66%latest tape · as of 02:03 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
PAGS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B
PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.92 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 02:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price7.92 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.33, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price7.92 USD
Fair value12.91
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution7.94-0.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markup9.02-12.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-10-02Read Markdown9.47-16.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-08-08Read Accumulation9.14-13.3% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. holds its Distribution at $7.92. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$7.92
Valuation
5.58 trailing · 4.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
77.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 77.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
56.76%
Below 5%
56.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
PagSeguro Digital's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PAGS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $12.91 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $12.91, with a range of $12.91 to $15.84, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Small Brazilian merchants still need better rails
Every corner shop owner in Sao Paulo or Recife still needs simple ways to take payments and move cash without wrestling legacy banks. PagSeguro built one of those local pipes and now trades at a forward multiple of just 4.8 times earnings with an 11 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity. Yet revenue growth has slowed to 2 percent, the moat remains unknown, and our screen gives the name a clear pass on ethics.
The valuation gap to our fair value of 14.12 from the current 9.04 looks wide on paper, and fourteen analysts still carry a buy rating with a 12 target. Low single-digit growth, however, points to a business that may already be bumping into limits rather than one set for re-rating. Cheap multiples on stagnant numbers often signal exactly that trap.
Brazilian currency swings, regulatory shifts, and competition from bigger wallets keep the risk real even with the ethical green light. The market is pricing in the right caution for now. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAGS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 30.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Markup$11.44+5.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markup$10.83+20.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$9.02-4.8%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$9.47+4.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-09-09Accumulation$9.04-1.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-08-08Accumulation · changed$9.14+2.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.96+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.96+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.96Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
