NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 19 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
PAGS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.7B
PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
9.62 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 19 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $9.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$9.62
Valuation
6.54 trailing · 5.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
77.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 77.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
56.76%
Below 5%
56.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 46.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Small Brazilian merchants still need better rails
Every corner shop owner in Sao Paulo or Recife still needs simple ways to take payments and move cash without wrestling legacy banks. PagSeguro built one of those local pipes and now trades at a forward multiple of just 4.8 times earnings with an 11 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity. Yet revenue growth has slowed to 2 percent, the moat remains unknown, and our screen gives the name a clear pass on ethics.
The valuation gap to our fair value of 14.12 from the current 9.04 looks wide on paper, and fourteen analysts still carry a buy rating with a 12 target. Low single-digit growth, however, points to a business that may already be bumping into limits rather than one set for re-rating. Cheap multiples on stagnant numbers often signal exactly that trap.
Brazilian currency swings, regulatory shifts, and competition from bigger wallets keep the risk real even with the ethical green light. The market is pricing in the right caution for now. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAGS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Accumulation$9.04-1.1%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-08-08Accumulation · changed$9.14+2.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.96+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.96+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.96Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
