Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.82 USD
Fair value61.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation40.46+10.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 12% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown36.17+23.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 22% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-29Read Distribution46.25-3.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-30Read Markup50.31-10.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 22% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Shift4 Payments, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $44.82. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$44.82
Valuation
71.14 trailing · 7.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.48
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.98%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.41%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Shift4 Payments,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 53% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $61.25 fair value, 34.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 26.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $61.25, with a range of $61.25 to $89.64, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Card Swipe Processor Offers Growth at a Discount
Every time a hotel guest taps to pay or a restaurant runs a busy shift, the transaction hits processors like Shift4 that move money across cards and systems most big names overlook. Revenue is rising 32 percent, the forward multiple sits at just 7.5 times, and the shares clear our ethical screen with room to a calculated value near 69 dollars from the current 50.
Yet profit margins remain stuck at 3 percent and return on equity at 10 percent, leaving little proof of durable advantage in a crowded field where analysts see only modest upside to 55 dollars. The low multiple reflects those thin returns rather than hidden strength.
Risk sits in the weak profitability and unknown competitive position that could keep returns capped even if volumes keep climbing. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FOUR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$41.49+3.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$40.03+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$40.03+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$40.03+3.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$38.79+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$38.79+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$38.79-4.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-10-18Markdown$38.84+7.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$36.17-7.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
