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The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
ONON Semiconductor
ON · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $29.3B · 22,600 employees
ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-28
Options put/call open interest 0.65, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price72.60 USD
Fair value69.28
Ethical score79.6/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-30Read Distribution75.24-3.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-10-29Read Markup75.63-4.0% to today Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-27Read Markdown73.70-1.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-25Read Markup73.70-1.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ON Semiconductor holds its Distribution at $72.60. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$72.60
Valuation
50.84 trailing · 16.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.6
Beta
2.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23.99%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.59%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
ON Semiconductor clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 24%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ON passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $69.28 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 9.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $69.28, with a range of $67.50 to $79.67, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chip cycle tempts but earnings peak ahead
Every boom in electric cars and factory sensors eventually hits a wall when carmakers and phone makers cut orders. ON Semiconductor sits right in that cycle with revenue growing just five percent and margins stuck at nine percent. The shares trade above our fair value with a forward multiple of twenty times earnings, so we pass.
Low returns on equity at seven percent and a narrow moat leave little room for error once demand cools. Analysts still see upside to one hundred ten dollars, yet those targets often assume the current upswing lasts. In cyclical semiconductors that rarely proves true.
The real risk is mistaking a peak earnings multiple for a bargain. Ethical screens clear but the numbers show limited growth and thin profitability that could compress fast. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ON trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Distribution$71.67+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$71.67+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$71.67-4.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup · changed$75.63+2.6%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$73.70+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown · changed$73.70+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$73.70+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$73.70+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 103% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.