NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.08%BTC$76,220+0.09%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Microchip Technology
MCHP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $39.8B
Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
73.38 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Microchip Technology holds its Markdown at $73.38. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$73.38
Valuation
107.91 trailing · 16.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.21%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $73.29 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 38.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chips in every gadget yet margins stay thin
Microchip builds the control chips that sit inside cars, factory gear and household devices. Revenue has jumped 35 percent lately, yet the business earns just a 5 percent profit margin and returns only 3 percent on equity. The ethical screen flags high debt, so the name fails outright.
We pass for clear reasons. The moat looks weak, forward earnings sit at 19.5 times, and our fair value sits below the current price. In a cyclical chip market that often peaks just when multiples look cheapest, low returns plus leverage spell a classic value trap rather than a bargain.
Analysts still push a buy with targets near 118 dollars, but the numbers and the debt screen tell a different story. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCHP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Distribution$75.81-2.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-18Markup$88.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-03Markup$88.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$88.34Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
