An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · STMicroelectronics N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $53.28
ST Microelectronics holds its Distribution at $53.28.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price
$53.28
Valuation
104.47 trailing · 20.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.52
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$53.28
104.47 P/E · 20.90 fwd
Our fair value
$46.77
12% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$72.00
+35% to current
Target low $32.80Analyst target rangeTarget high $98.00
▲ current $53.28 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$53.28
you are here
Conservative
$29.52
-45%
Analyst avg
$72.00
+35%
Our fair value
$46.77
-12%
Analyst high
$98.00
+84%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
26.10%
Profit margin
3.56%
Debt to equity
23.45
Analyst consensus
Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 9.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 18.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Chip cycles swing from feast to famine
Picture a factory that races to meet demand only to watch orders vanish when phones and cars slow. That pattern defines much of the semiconductor trade, and ST Microelectronics sits right in its path. Revenue is rising 23 percent, yet profit margins sit at just 1 percent and return on equity is equally thin, leaving little cushion when the cycle turns.
We pass on the shares. The price of 62 dollars sits well above our fair value of 45 dollars, a negative margin of safety that already prices in optimistic growth. A forward multiple of 24.9 times adds to the stretch, and the narrow moat offers scant protection against bigger rivals in a capital-heavy industry.
The real danger is the classic cyclical trap. Low returns today can look like a bargain until peak earnings fade and multiples compress further. Analyst targets may sit higher, yet those forecasts often assume the upswing lasts. Ethical screening clears, but valuation and cycle risk do not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-23 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-23Markup$62.06+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$62.06+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$62.06+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$62.06+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$62.06-19.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$77.30+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$77.30+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$77.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 136%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$77.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$77.30Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming STM
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
500K–1M
27 May2026
John Boozman
Republican
buy
1K–15K
26 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
15K–50K
2026-05-05
Brian Babin
Republican
Sale
1K–15K
13 May2026
John Boozman
Republican
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$60.12
+17.7%
·
$1,177
+17.7%
2 months
$39.48
+79.2%
·
$1,792
+79.2%
3 months
$33.15
+113.5%
$0.09
$2,137
+113.7%
6 months
$26.10
+171.1%
$0.18
$2,718
+171.8%
1 year
$30.02
+135.7%
$0.36
$2,369
+136.9%
2 years
$43.24
+63.6%
$0.72
$1,653
+65.3%
3 years
$45.81
+54.4%
$0.96
$1,565
+56.5%
5 years
$36.61
+93.2%
$1.44
$1,972
+97.2%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever STM does next, these words stay.
ST Microelectronics · STM · Distribution · $53.28
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically