Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.46, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.61 USD
Fair value17.94
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution11.61+0.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 15% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markup13.59-14.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution13.59-14.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-07Read Markup14.48-19.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 21% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nu Holdings Ltd. holds its Distribution at $11.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$11.61
Valuation
16.51 trailing · 10.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
126.42%
Below 5%
126.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Nu does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NU does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $17.94 fair value, strong competitive moat, 52.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $17.94, with a range of $12.66 to $21.10, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Digital bank growth hits an ethical wall
Millions in Brazil and Mexico now manage money through a phone app rather than a branch queue. Nu Holdings shows revenue climbing 44 percent a year, a 42 percent profit margin and 30 percent ROE, all behind a strong moat and trading at 11.8 times forward earnings. We still pass because the business activity screen flags a clear ethical breach.
The numbers look attractive on paper and the margin of safety to our fair value sits near 30 percent. Consensus targets sit higher still. None of that moves the needle once the ethical test is failed.
Currency swings in Latin America and regulatory shifts remain real threats even before the ethical issue. The low multiple reflects those uncertainties rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-25Markup$14.73+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-18Markup$14.73+8.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$13.59+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-09-08Markup$14.21-1.9%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$14.48+21.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.97+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.97+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.97Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
