NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials
Nu Holdings Ltd.
NU · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $74.1B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.33 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Nu Holdings Ltd. holds its Markdown at $15.33. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$15.33
Valuation
21.00 trailing · 13.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $18.10 fair value, strong competitive moat, 52.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Digital bank growth hits an ethical wall
Millions in Brazil and Mexico now manage money through a phone app rather than a branch queue. Nu Holdings shows revenue climbing 44 percent a year, a 42 percent profit margin and 30 percent ROE, all behind a strong moat and trading at 11.8 times forward earnings. We still pass because the business activity screen flags a clear ethical breach.
The numbers look attractive on paper and the margin of safety to our fair value sits near 30 percent. Consensus targets sit higher still. None of that moves the needle once the ethical test is failed.
Currency swings in Latin America and regulatory shifts remain real threats even before the ethical issue. The low multiple reflects those uncertainties rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markup$14.21-1.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$14.48+21.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.97Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
