APO · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $77.8B · 6,140 employees
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
131.81 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Apollo Global Management holds its Markdown at $131.81. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$131.81
Valuation
46.91 trailing · 12.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate Database
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Listed by AFSC Investigate Database for: Portfolio includes Atlas Air, which transported weapons from the US to Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $157.52 fair value, weak competitive moat, 63.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Apollo trips the ethical screen first
Apollo runs private equity and credit strategies that pension funds and endowments count on for steady returns. The stock sits at a forward multiple of 11.3 times earnings with a 28 percent gap to our fair value, yet we pass for reasons that start with the ethical screen and do not end there.
Revenue fell 9 percent, profit margins sit at just 4 percent and return on equity is only 8 percent. The moat is rated weak, which fits a business whose results move with deal flow and credit cycles rather than durable advantages. The ethical fail on business activity closes the case regardless of analyst targets clustered around 148.
Low multiples on cyclical asset managers often signal peak earnings rather than bargains, and the ethical breach removes any reason to look closer. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markup · changed$129.98+6.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150.
2026-08-04Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$122.61+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$120.47-5.9%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150.
2026-07-18Accumulation$128.03+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $150.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.