Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.80, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price169.71 USD
Fair value211.30
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown179.73-5.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 11% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation161.75+4.9% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
State Street Corporation holds its Markdown at $169.71. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$169.71
Valuation
14.20 trailing · 11.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
State Street does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today STT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $211.30 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 13.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $211.30, with a range of $174.45 to $290.75, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Custody bank stumbles on its own ethics test
Picture the quiet back office that keeps pension funds and asset managers in working order across the globe. State Street sits right there, handling custody and administration for trillions in assets. The numbers look steady enough on paper, yet the story stops before it starts.
We pass outright. Revenue is already shrinking 3 percent, the forward multiple sits at 12.1 times, and return on equity barely clears 12 percent. None of that would matter if the business cleared our ethical screen, but it does not. The activity screen flags it, and that single failure overrides any margin of safety to our fair value of 212.
Analysts still cluster around a buy rating with targets near 198, yet they ignore the ethical line entirely. A moderate moat offers little protection when core activity itself is disqualified. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$167.60+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-10-21Markdown$167.60-4.2%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-10-14Markdown$174.96+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $199. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$174.96+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $199. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$174.96-2.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $199. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$179.73+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $199. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$179.73+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $199. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$179.73-6.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-09-14Accumulation$191.89+2.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-08-14Accumulation$187.05+15.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $161.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
