Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.49 USD
Fair value23.60
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation18.49+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-08Read Markdown18.31+1.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup16.58+11.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NatWest Group Plc ADR holds its Markdown at $18.49. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$18.49
Valuation
9.29 trailing · 8.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NatWest Group Plc does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
UK Bank That Hits Our Ethical Wall
Picture the queues at a high street branch or the salary landing in an account each month. NatWest sits at the centre of that everyday flow for millions of British customers and businesses. We pass on the name outright because it fails our ethical screen on banks.
The business shows an 8.6 times forward earnings multiple, 8 percent revenue growth and a 37 percent profit margin with 14 percent ROE. Those figures look steady enough on paper yet none of them move the ethical verdict. The screen exists precisely to keep excluded sectors off the table regardless of valuation.
Risk here is straightforward and non negotiable. We do not override the industry exclusion even when the price sits below our own fair value estimate. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NWG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$18.31-4.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-07Markup$19.22+15.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.58Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
