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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
Itau Unibanco Holding
ITUB · NYSE (ADR) · USD · Market cap $91.6B
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.31 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Itau Unibanco Holding holds its Markup at $8.31. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$8.31
Valuation
10.13 trailing · 8.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $10.00 fair value, 17.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian Bank Looks Cheap But Fails Ethics Test
Every payday in Sao Paulo the wages hit accounts at one of the big local lenders and the cash moves through familiar channels. Itau Unibanco sits right in the middle of that flow, serving millions of retail and corporate clients across Brazil with steady margins of 33 percent and a 22 percent return on equity. The numbers look solid on paper, yet we pass for one clear reason.
The ethical screen flags the business on activity exclusions and that alone rules it out, regardless of the forward multiple at 8.3 times or the slim revenue dip of 2 percent. Analyst targets sit near 9 dollars while our own fair value sits higher, but none of that moves the needle once the screen is failed.
Currency swings and local regulation still add real volatility that a low multiple does not erase. The combination leaves no room to proceed. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ITUB trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-08-04Markup$8.28+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$8.28+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$8.28+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$8.28+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$8.28+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$8.28+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$8.28+3.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$7.99+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Distribution$7.99+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.