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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
ICICI Bank
IBN · NYSE (ADR) · USD · Market cap $106.0B
ICICI Bank Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of various banking and financial services to retail and corporate customers in India and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
29.53 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
ICICI Bank holds its Distribution at $29.53. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$29.53
Valuation
18.01 trailing · 15.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 9% discount to our $32.10 fair value, 11.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Indian Bank Looks Strong but Fails Ethics
Millions of Indian households and businesses move money through ICICI every day, yet we are staying away. The business fails our ethical screen on activity exclusions, and that single point overrides everything else on the table.
Numbers show revenue growth at 67 percent, a 25 percent profit margin and 16 percent ROE, with shares changing hands at 15.6 times forward earnings. Analyst targets sit higher still, but none of that moves the needle once the ethical test is failed.
Risk sits with the hard exclusion itself plus normal emerging-market swings in regulation and currency. The screen exists for exactly these cases. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to India and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IBN trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in India). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$29.67+0.5%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$29.51+6.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Distribution$27.79+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Distribution$27.79+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Distribution$27.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$27.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$27.79Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
