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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
MFG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $134.8B · 52,427 employees
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.14 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. holds its Markup at $11.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 265 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 265 days
Price at the screen
$11.14
Valuation
15.69 trailing · 8.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $12.06 fair value, weak competitive moat, 35.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
A Japanese Banking Giant with Ethical Stains
Imagine a financial juggernaut that stands tall in Japan yet carries a tarnished ethical shield - this is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., a conglomerate with fingers in multiple financial pies including banking, trust banking, and securities. Despite robust revenue growth of 35%, it's the ethical failures that outshine the numbers, failing our ethical screen due to its business activities. Why it stands out is its ability to grow revenue amidst challenges, yet it's the ethical missteps that cast a shadow.
However, the numbers tell a cautious tale. A forward P/E of 7.3x is enticing, but with a weak moat, a profit margin of 29%, and an ROE of 12%, the value proposition is not as solid as it might initially appear. Mizuho's profitability is respectable, but the weak moat suggests a vulnerability in maintaining its competitive edge, which is a significant risk to consider.
Given the ethical failings, we're steering clear of Mizuho, despite its financial performance. The market seems to offer a glimpse of hope with a price of $10.13 and our fair value of $12.06, suggesting a margin of safety of +19%. Yet, the ethical red flags are too glaring to ignore. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MFG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup$10.13-4.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-30Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$10.63+7.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$9.87+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$9.87+2.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$9.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markup$9.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
