Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.50, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price60.49 USD
Fair value75.00
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation59.58+1.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-15Read Markdown62.49-3.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-15Read Accumulation64.21-5.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 15% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown55.69+8.6% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
U.S. Bancorp holds its Accumulation at $60.49. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$60.49
Valuation
11.80 trailing · 10.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
U.S. Bancorp does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $75.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 8.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $75.00, with a range of $65.83 to $109.71, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethical screen keeps this bank off limits
Walk into any branch and the services look ordinary, from current accounts to small business loans. Yet U.S. Bancorp fails the ethical screen on business activity grounds, so it never reaches the rest of our checks.
We pass for that single reason. The numbers show a moderate moat, 30 percent margins and 13 percent ROE, yet none of it matters once the screen is triggered.
Valuation at 11 times forward earnings and a 22 percent gap to our fair value figure would normally draw a closer look, but the ethical failure overrides everything else. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
USB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-22Markdown$57.39+0.5%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-15Markdown$57.08+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$57.08+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$57.08+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$57.08-3.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$59.33+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$59.33+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$59.33-5.1%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$62.49-2.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
