NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 09:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
U.S. Bancorp
USB · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $97.4B · 70,000 employees
U.S.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
62.49 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
U.S. Bancorp holds its Markdown at $62.49. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$62.49
Valuation
12.47 trailing · 10.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $77.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethical screen keeps this bank off limits
Walk into any branch and the services look ordinary, from current accounts to small business loans. Yet U.S. Bancorp fails the ethical screen on business activity grounds, so it never reaches the rest of our checks.
We pass for that single reason. The numbers show a moderate moat, 30 percent margins and 13 percent ROE, yet none of it matters once the screen is triggered.
Valuation at 11 times forward earnings and a 22 percent gap to our fair value figure would normally draw a closer look, but the ethical failure overrides everything else. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
USB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$62.49-2.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Markdown$55.69+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-16Markdown$55.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$55.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$55.69Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
