NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 07:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
National Health Investors, Inc.
NHI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.4B · 32 employees
National Health Investors, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
69.30 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
National Health Investors, Inc. holds its Markdown at $69.30. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 497 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 497 days
Price at the screen
$69.30
Valuation
20.03 trailing · 21.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Senior Housing REITs Trade At A Premium Price
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from care homes and clinics while the population ages. National Health Investors fits that picture exactly, owning a portfolio of senior housing and medical facilities through sale-leasebacks and mortgages. The business clears a 37 percent profit margin and passes our ethical screen without issue, yet revenue is already falling 3 percent and the shares sit 15 percent above our fair value.
We pass because the numbers do not justify the price. A 23.1 times forward earnings multiple on a company growing backwards and earning a modest 10 percent return on equity leaves little room for error. Analyst targets hover near the current level, but that consensus simply reflects the same stretched valuation rather than any fresh growth catalyst.
Interest rate moves and rising care-home costs remain the clearest risks, both of which can squeeze REIT cash flows quickly. Even a stable operator can look expensive when the multiple already prices in perfection. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NHI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Distribution$73.39-7.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-06Distribution$79.61+10.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Distribution$72.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Distribution$72.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$72.10Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.