Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.08, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price71.29 USD
Fair value67.60
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup67.04+6.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-10-02Read Markdown67.87+5.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution72.10-1.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Health Investors, Inc. holds its Markup at $71.29. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$71.29
Valuation
20.60 trailing · 20.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Health Investors,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 42% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NHI's ethical verdict changes
Today NHI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $67.60 fair value estimate, 33.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $67.60, with a range of $58.50 to $77.74, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Senior Housing REITs Trade At A Premium Price
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from care homes and clinics while the population ages. National Health Investors fits that picture exactly, owning a portfolio of senior housing and medical facilities through sale-leasebacks and mortgages. The business clears a 37 percent profit margin and passes our ethical screen without issue, yet revenue is already falling 3 percent and the shares sit 15 percent above our fair value.
We pass because the numbers do not justify the price. A 23.1 times forward earnings multiple on a company growing backwards and earning a modest 10 percent return on equity leaves little room for error. Analyst targets hover near the current level, but that consensus simply reflects the same stretched valuation rather than any fresh growth catalyst.
Interest rate moves and rising care-home costs remain the clearest risks, both of which can squeeze REIT cash flows quickly. Even a stable operator can look expensive when the multiple already prices in perfection. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NHI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$71.29+3.7%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$68.77+2.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$67.04+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$67.04+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup · changed$67.04+1.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-10-25Markdown$66.35+1.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-10-18Markdown$65.36-3.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$67.87-7.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-09-06Distribution$73.39-7.8%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-06Distribution$79.61+10.4%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.