Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.46, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.70 USD
Fair value2.73
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markdown2.63+2.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 45% slide in 11 weeks
2026-08-05Read Distribution4.75-43.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Accumulation4.96-45.6% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. holds its Markdown at $2.70. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$2.70
Valuation
N/A trailing · 52.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Medical Properties Trust,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 65% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +85% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hospital landlord priced well above its worth
Picture a landlord collecting rent from hospitals that still cannot turn a profit. Medical Properties Trust owns nearly four hundred facilities yet posts an 11 percent negative profit margin and a negative 3 percent return on equity. At 32 times forward earnings the shares sit 29 percent above our fair value, which explains the none rating despite a clean ethical screen.
Revenue may be rising 13 percent but the losses show the business is not covering its cost of capital. Analysts sit on a hold rating with a five dollar median target that still leaves little margin once debt and lease risks are considered. The market already prices in the problems the numbers confirm.
High leverage and exposure to healthcare reimbursement cuts keep downside risk elevated even if rents keep flowing. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MPT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$2.63+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown · changed$2.63-16.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$3.13-14.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-02Distribution$3.65-10.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-09-05Distribution$4.08-14.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.