Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.19, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.65 USD
Fair value35.38
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Markup42.19+8.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-25Read Distribution42.19+8.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-18Read Accumulation42.91+6.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-11Read Markdown43.00+6.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
LTC Properties, Inc. holds its Markup at $45.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$45.65
Valuation
16.31 trailing · 28.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
LTC Properties,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $35.38 fair value estimate, 65.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 29.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $35.38, with a range of $35.38 to $40.69, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Seniors housing REIT priced for the boom that never came
Picture an investor chasing steady rents from care homes only to watch top line revenue shrink 19 percent while the shares still trade at 25 times forward earnings. LTC Properties sits at 41.75 against a fair value of 27.40, offering a negative margin of safety and a clear none rating. The business passes the ethical screen yet fails every basic test of value.
Analysts rate it a hold with a 40 dollar median target, but that still leaves the stock expensive against an 11 percent return on equity and no visible growth runway. Profit margins look healthy at 40 percent, yet they sit on a shrinking base of nearly 190 properties whose occupancy and rates face ongoing pressure.
The real risk is simple overpayment in a sector that rarely rewards premium multiples when volumes are falling. Paying up for stability that is already eroding rarely ends well for income investors.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LTC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$44.75+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$44.75+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$44.75+2.3%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$43.75+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$43.75+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$43.75+3.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$42.19+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$42.19+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
