NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,250+6.34%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 18 Sep
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
LTC Properties, Inc.
LTC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.3B · 25 employees
LTC Properties, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
43.46 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 18 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
LTC Properties, Inc. holds its Markup at $43.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$43.46
Valuation
15.52 trailing · 27.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Seniors housing REIT priced for the boom that never came
Picture an investor chasing steady rents from care homes only to watch top line revenue shrink 19 percent while the shares still trade at 25 times forward earnings. LTC Properties sits at 41.75 against a fair value of 27.40, offering a negative margin of safety and a clear none rating. The business passes the ethical screen yet fails every basic test of value.
Analysts rate it a hold with a 40 dollar median target, but that still leaves the stock expensive against an 11 percent return on equity and no visible growth runway. Profit margins look healthy at 40 percent, yet they sit on a shrinking base of nearly 190 properties whose occupancy and rates face ongoing pressure.
The real risk is simple overpayment in a sector that rarely rewards premium multiples when volumes are falling. Paying up for stability that is already eroding rarely ends well for income investors.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LTC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$40.69-2.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-08-04Markup · changed$41.75+13.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Accumulation$36.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Accumulation$36.83+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$36.83Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
