Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on delivering novel therapeutics for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
546.93 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-02
Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc holds its Accumulation at $546.93. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$546.93
Valuation
N/A trailing · 56.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
62.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 62.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
26.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.90%
Below 5%
Only 3.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
New liver drug already priced beyond reach
A fresh pill for fatty liver disease sounds like progress for patients stuck with few options. Madrigal has launched Rezdiffra and revenue is jumping fast. Yet the share price sits well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety.
We pass. Growth at 127 percent is eye-catching, yet the firm still posts a 27 percent loss margin and negative return on equity. A 44.7 times forward earnings multiple leaves little room for any slip in execution or slower uptake.
The narrow moat and single-product focus add real fragility. High expectations from analysts sit against ongoing cash burn and the risk that competition arrives sooner than hoped. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MDGL trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $679.
2026-08-05Distribution$493.11+2.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $679.
2026-07-18Distribution$480.77+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $679.
2026-07-03Distribution$480.77+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$480.77Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
