Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price60.24 USD
Fair value61.34
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markup67.53-10.8% to today
2026-08-05Read Distribution58.22+3.5% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation64.50-6.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
LyondellBasell holds its Markdown at $60.24. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$60.24
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
11.65%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $61.34 fair value, weak competitive moat, 19.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chemicals firm trips on debt and cycles
When the economy slows, orders for plastics and chemicals drop fast and LyondellBasell feels every swing. We pass because the forward multiple of 8.8 times earnings sits below our fair value yet masks shrinking revenue, negative margins and a weak moat in a sector that rewards timing more than ownership.
Revenue already fell six percent while profit margins and return on equity both sit in negative territory. In cyclical chemicals that low multiple often flags peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the debt ratio fails our ethical screen outright.
Seventeen analysts sit on hold with a higher median target but none of that offsets the cycle exposure or the balance sheet weakness. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LYB trades on a US exchange (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup · changed$67.53+16.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $80.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-18Accumulation$64.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-03Accumulation$64.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$64.50Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.