Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $153.43. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$153.43
Valuation
18.53 trailing · 13.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
18.98%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.26%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Education Services Firm Shows Strong Returns But We Pass
Every student signing into an online degree course depends on unseen systems for enrolment, payments and support that keep the university running. Grand Canyon Education supplies exactly those services across technology platforms and academic administration. The business delivers 7% revenue growth, 20% profit margins and 30% return on equity at a forward multiple of 12.6 times, with our fair value implying a 51% margin of safety and a clean ethical screen.
Those figures look attractive on paper, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The moat remains unknown, analyst coverage is thin and the sector carries ongoing regulatory scrutiny that can shift quickly. Price sits at 140 dollars against a median target of 200 dollars, but absence of a clear edge keeps us on the sidelines.
Risk sits in potential policy changes around for-profit education and the lack of visibility on durable competitive advantage. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LOPE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-08-04Markup · changed$140.44-4.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-07-18Markdown$147.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-07-03Markdown$147.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$147.49Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
