Screened 2026-08-25 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
TAL Education Group holds its Markdown at $11.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$11.59
Valuation
7.24 trailing · 9.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.75%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.06%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 70.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chinese Tutoring Demand Meets a Wide Valuation Gap
Every family in Shanghai or Shenzhen chasing exam results funnels cash into after-school classes. TAL Education sits in that flow, delivering K-12 tutoring through small groups, premium one-to-one sessions and online courses. The business is expanding revenue 32 percent, posting an 18 percent profit margin and 14 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of just 9.9 times while our fair value sits 80 percent higher at 18.39 against the current 10.24 price. Ethical screen cleared.
Those numbers create a clear gap to the median analyst target of 16, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The moat remains unknown and eighteen analysts offer no consensus rating, leaving the valuation unsupported by broad market conviction.
China policy risk dominates the picture. Sudden regulatory shifts on tutoring content or foreign ownership can erase earnings quickly, and currency moves add further volatility on top of an already opaque competitive landscape. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TAL trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$11.59-7.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 34.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Markdown$9.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Markdown$9.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$9.26Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
