An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $52.33
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc ADR holds its Markup at $52.33.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 341 days
Price
$52.33
Valuation
17.44 trailing · 10.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.24
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$52.33
17.44 P/E · 10.38 fwd
Our fair value
$86.91
66% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$73.00
+39% to current
Target low $56.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $90.00
▲ current $52.33 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$52.33
you are here
Conservative
$75.62
+45%
Analyst avg
$73.00
+39%
Our fair value
$86.91
+66%
Analyst high
$90.00
+72%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
23.00%
Profit margin
8.39%
Debt to equity
19.63
Analyst consensus
Buy · 21 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 10.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 21.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
China's tutoring sector still fights policy handcuffs
Picture a classroom where the curriculum can be rewritten by a regulator overnight. New Oriental still delivers solid 20% revenue growth and an 11.4x forward earnings multiple that looks cheap next to its 8% profit margin. Yet the business carries only a weak moat and carries an opportunity rating of none, so we pass despite the ethical screen clearing and the 61% gap to our fair value.
The numbers show modest 11% return on equity and a buy-rated analyst median target of $72. Those figures sit on top of heavy exposure to Chinese education rules that have already forced painful restructuring in recent years. Low barriers to new entrants and shifting government priorities keep any durable advantage out of reach.
Risk sits in the regulatory overhang and thin competitive protection that can erase growth quickly. Currency moves and sudden policy tightening add further pressure on cash flows. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71. Entered 2026-07-27 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Markdown$49.15+5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markdown$46.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$46.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$46.67Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming EDU
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
30 Apr2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
30 Apr2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
29 Jun2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
26 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
26 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$51.53
-10.1%
$0.60
$910
-9.0%
2 months
$56.23
-17.6%
$0.60
$834
-16.6%
3 months
$52.86
-12.4%
$0.60
$887
-11.3%
6 months
$52.17
-11.2%
$0.60
$899
-10.1%
1 year
$48.06
-3.6%
$0.60
$976
-2.4%
2 years
$76.83
-39.7%
$1.20
$618
-38.2%
3 years
$41.10
+12.7%
$1.20
$1,156
+15.6%
5 years
$93.37
-50.4%
$1.20
$509
-49.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever EDU does next, these words stay.
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc ADR · EDU · Markup · $52.33
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
