Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Graham Holdings Company holds its Markdown at $1,138.57. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 157 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 157 days
Price at the screen
$1,138.57
Valuation
9.21 trailing · 16.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.97%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.4% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Education Holdings Trade Well Above Fair Value
When families stump up for test prep or career courses, the cash lands inside Graham Holdings diversified education and training arms. The numbers show modest 6% revenue growth, 6% profit margins and 7% return on equity, hardly the profile of a compounder.
The shares sit at 1177 against a fair value of 904, a negative 23% margin of safety, while the forward multiple of 17.6 times already prices in better growth than the business has delivered. The single analyst target of 990 still leaves the stock expensive, and an unknown moat offers no cushion.
Low returns and thin margins leave little room for execution slips or sector pressure, so the valuation gap stays the dominant reason to pass despite the clean ethical screen. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GHC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markdown · changed$1,178.62+0.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$1,177.86+0.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990.
2026-07-18Markdown$1,174.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990.
2026-07-03Markdown$1,174.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$1,174.18Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
