Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price1,241.78 USD
Fair value907.41Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation1,151.29+7.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-30Read Markdown1,178.62+5.4% to today Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-07-31Read Markup1,177.86+5.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Markdown1,174.18+5.8% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Graham Holdings Company holds its Accumulation at $1,241.78. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 233 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 233 days
Price at the screen
$1,241.78
Valuation
10.93 trailing · 18.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.97%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Graham clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 16%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when GHC's ethical verdict changes
Today GHC passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $907.41 fair value estimate, 3.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 36.8% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $907.41, with a range of $907.41 to $1,043.52, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Education Holdings Trade Well Above Fair Value
When families stump up for test prep or career courses, the cash lands inside Graham Holdings diversified education and training arms. The numbers show modest 6% revenue growth, 6% profit margins and 7% return on equity, hardly the profile of a compounder.
The shares sit at 1177 against a fair value of 904, a negative 23% margin of safety, while the forward multiple of 17.6 times already prices in better growth than the business has delivered. The single analyst target of 990 still leaves the stock expensive, and an unknown moat offers no cushion.
Low returns and thin margins leave little room for execution slips or sector pressure, so the valuation gap stays the dominant reason to pass despite the clean ethical screen. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GHC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$1,170.09-4.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$1,225.68+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$1,225.68+2.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$1,198.75+4.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it sell, with a mean price target of $990.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
