Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price9.50 USD
Fair value9.38Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-31Read Accumulation9.41+1.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Markup9.36+1.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $9.50. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$9.50
Valuation
59.38 trailing · 18.27 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.63%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Global Business Travel Group, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today GBTG passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $9.38 fair value estimate, 37.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.3% above the base estimate.
Picture a sales team booking flights from London to New York after years of video calls. The volume is back, yet the platform taking the booking still earns just three pence on every pound of revenue. Global Business Travel Group sits at that intersection, growing sales 35 percent while posting a 6 percent return on equity and a forward multiple of 17 times. Fair value sits only 6 percent above the current price, so the numbers line up with no real bargain on offer.
The business clears the ethical screen, yet the operating picture stays ordinary. Profit margins remain stuck at 3 percent in a sector where scale rarely converts into pricing power once competition from cards and direct airline channels returns. Unknown competitive protection and low returns on capital suggest any recovery may simply lift revenue without lifting owner earnings in a durable way.
Cyclical demand can vanish quickly when corporate budgets tighten again. With the shares already close to assessed worth and no margin of safety to speak of, there is little edge here either way. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GBTG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-10-21Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-10-14Accumulation$9.50+0.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-10-02Accumulation$9.50+0.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-08-30Accumulation$9.47+0.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
