Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price64.93 USD
Fair value107.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation67.12-3.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-09-15Read Markdown66.74-2.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup74.13-12.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Travel + Leisure Co. holds its Accumulation at $64.93. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 74 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 74 days
Price at the screen
$64.93
Valuation
18.34 trailing · 7.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
84.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 84.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.22%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Travel + Leisure's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 85% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 64.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Resort ownership tempts until the cycle turns
Picture families locking in their annual getaway only to cancel when petrol prices jump or wages stall. Travel + Leisure runs vacation ownership and membership clubs across that exact patch, yet revenue is crawling at 3 percent with margins stuck at 6 percent. The 8.6 times forward earnings multiple looks cheap next to our $105 fair value, but the business sits squarely in consumer cyclical travel, where peak earnings often disguise the next trough.
We therefore pass despite an ethical screen clearance and a wide paper margin of safety. Low multiples in this sector usually signal the market already prices in fading demand rather than a bargain waiting to be claimed. Analyst targets sit at $87, still below our internal number, yet none of that shifts the core cyclical exposure.
Risk sits in sudden drops in leisure spending that compress both ownership sales and membership renewals at once. Currency moves and fuel shocks hit the same customer base twice. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TNL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$67.12+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$62.63+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$62.63-0.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-10-02Markdown$62.96-5.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $86.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.