Epsilon Energy Ltd., a North American onshore independent natural gas and oil company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, gathering, and production of natural oil and gas reserves.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.08, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price5.83 USD
Fair value2.91Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Ethical score87.8/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation5.88-0.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-18Read Markdown5.88-0.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Distribution6.03-3.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown6.03-3.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Epsilon Energy Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $5.83. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$5.83
Valuation
N/A trailing · 17.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.8
Beta
-0.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.81%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.37%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Epsilon Energy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $2.91 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 57.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 100.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $2.91, with a range of $2.91 to $3.91, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas producer priced well above its worth
Every boom in natural gas sends small explorers racing to drill, and revenue here has jumped 58 percent. Yet the firm still posts a 15 percent negative profit margin and an 8 percent negative return on equity, with only a weak moat protecting any gains once prices turn.
The shares trade at 5.52 dollars against a fair value of 2.76 dollars, a 50 percent premium, even on a forward multiple of 14.9 times. In a cyclical industry that pattern often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and nothing in the numbers suggests the cycle has changed.
Currency swings, reserve write-downs and thin margins remain live threats despite clearing the ethical screen. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EPSN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$5.83-0.9%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-10-25Accumulation · changed$5.88+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$5.88-2.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-10-11Distribution · changed$6.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$6.03+8.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-08-28Markup$5.58+1.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-07-27Markup$5.52-4.7%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-07-18Markup$5.79+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-07-03Markup$5.79+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$5.79Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
