An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $148.99
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $148.99.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
STUDY
Titan case study · our full written analysis of BOOT
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price
$148.99
Valuation
18.86 trailing · 14.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.3
Beta
1.70
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY — it trades at roughly a 45% discount to our $216.70 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$148.99
18.86 P/E · 14.91 fwd
Our fair value
$216.70
45% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$213.50
+43% to current
Target low $190.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $282.00
▲ current $148.99 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$148.99
you are here
Conservative
$171.00
+15%
Analyst avg
$213.50
+43%
Our fair value
$216.70
+45%
Analyst high
$282.00
+89%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
17.70%
Profit margin
10.35%
Debt to equity
59.32
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 14 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 15.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Western boots still sell when pay cheques hold up
Picture a ranch hand or construction worker needing a new pair of durable boots and a work shirt that lasts. Boot Barn sits right in that lane, selling western and workwear across a growing store base. Revenue is rising 19 percent, margins sit at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent. Forward earnings trade at just 15.4 times, well below our fair value of 220 dollars against a current price near 152, giving a 44 percent margin of safety. The moderate moat and clean ethical screen add to the case for a business that keeps compounding through ordinary cycles.
Yet this remains a classic consumer cyclical name. Low multiples on peak earnings often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. A slowdown in discretionary spending or higher input costs could quickly compress those margins and growth rates that now look attractive.
Fourteen analysts carry a strong buy consensus with a 222 dollar median target, but the real test sits in how long the current spending environment lasts. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BOOT trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225. Entered 2026-07-23 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-23Markdown · changed$152.47-9.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-18Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$167.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
