NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,296−0.86%BTC$75,632+0.03%VIX17.71+2.97%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Victoria's Secret & Co
VSXY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.9B · 30,000 employees
Victoria's Secret & Co.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
73.64 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-03
Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Victoria's Secret & Co holds its Distribution at $73.64. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$73.64
Valuation
29.34 trailing · 13.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 49.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Victoria's Secret Looks Cheap But We Pass
Picture a busy high street store where shoppers snap up bras and sleepwear one quarter then stay away the next. Victoria's Secret shows 15 percent revenue growth and a solid 32 percent ROE, yet its 3 percent profit margin and weak moat leave little room for error when fashion tastes shift or costs rise. The forward multiple of 14.9 times earnings looks reasonable next to the $104.96 fair value, but this is a classic cyclical retailer where low multiples often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain.
We give the stock an opportunity rating of none despite the ethical screen clearing and analyst targets around $90. The business operates in a crowded apparel space with no durable edge, so even the 29 percent margin of safety fails to overcome the thin profitability and lack of pricing power.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure that can turn a modest slowdown into sharp earnings misses, plus the thin margins that offer scant cushion if input costs climb. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VSXY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markdown$84.10+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markdown$84.10+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$84.10+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Accumulation$84.10+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Accumulation$84.10+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Accumulation$84.10+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Accumulation$84.10+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Accumulation$84.10-5.2%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Markup$78.88+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 234%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.