NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,387−0.86%BTC$86,528+6.64%VIX14.87+0.41%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 21 Sep
The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
BHP Group Limited ADR
BHP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $222.0B · 39,369 employees
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price86.27 USD
Fair value58.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup90.82-5.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BHP Group Limited ADR holds its Distribution at $86.27. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$86.27
Valuation
22.57 trailing · 18.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.18%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Resources Giant BHP in Cyclical Value Trap
Imagine the world's mining industry as a rollercoaster: thrilling when on an upswing but terrifying when the cycle swings back down. BHP Group, with its global presence and involvement in copper, iron ore, and coal mining, is no stranger to these cycles. Its price of $97.13 significantly outstrips our fair value estimate of $52.75, signaling a potential overvaluation. Despite a commendable forward P/E ratio of 20.3x, revenue growth of 18%, and admirable profit and ROE margins, the cyclical nature of the industry could mean that these figures are reflective of peak earnings, a warning sign of a value trap rather than a bargain.
BHP stands out with a wide economic moat, suggesting it has significant competitive advantages. The company's ethical screen is a pass, aligning with our principles. However, with a consensus hold rating from seven analysts and a median target of $65, the market seems cautiously positioned. Given the cyclical pitfalls of the industry, it's crucial not to be blinded by the current promising metrics, as they might not be sustainable through the inevitable downturns.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BHP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$87.90+9.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-23Markup$80.64-11.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Markup$90.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-03Markup$90.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$90.82Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.