NAS10026,630−6.36%S&P7,354−4.36%GOLD$4,075−0.93%BTC$76,040+0.13%VIX26.62−5.54%latest tape · as of 12:04 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
BHPBHP Group Limited ADR
BHP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $198.6B · 39,369 employees
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 5.31, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price78.58 USD
Fair value58.71
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown84.82-7.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution84.82-7.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup90.82-13.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BHP Group Limited ADR holds its Distribution at $78.58. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$78.58
Valuation
20.24 trailing · 16.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.18%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
BHP clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 23%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when BHP's ethical verdict changes
Today BHP passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $58.71 fair value estimate, wide competitive moat, 18.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.8% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $58.71, with a range of $55.80 to $67.51, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 16.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 34% above our $58.71 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The wide moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BHP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$79.16-4.9%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-25Markdown$83.22+0.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-18Markdown$82.90-2.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$84.82+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-08-23Markup$87.90+9.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-23Markup$80.64-11.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Markup$90.82+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-03Markup$90.82+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$90.82Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.