Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price13.48 USD
Fair value6.74
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-28Read Accumulation13.29+1.4% to today ✓
2026-07-18Read Markup12.20+10.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. holds its Distribution at $13.48. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$13.48
Valuation
16.24 trailing · 22.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.26%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $6.74 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 35.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Copper Miner Looks Strong but Cycle Trap Looms
Picture the copper that runs through every new electric car and data centre. Grupo México pulls it from mines across the Americas and moves it on its own rail network. The business posts 33% revenue growth, 29% profit margins and 26% ROE while clearing our ethical screen and showing a strong moat. Those figures explain why the name earns an opportunity label.
Yet the shares trade at $11.66 against a fair value of $5.83, a 50% premium. Forward earnings sit on 19.8 times in an industry where demand and prices swing hard with global construction and car sales. Peak margins often coincide with peak multiples, turning what looks like quality into a classic cyclical trap once volumes or prices roll over.
Risk sits in that valuation gap and the exposure to metal prices that can fall fast. The transport and infrastructure arms add some ballast, but they cannot offset a sharp downturn in the core mining cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Mexico and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GMBXF trades on PNK (the company is based in Mexico). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%.
2026-07-27Markup$11.86+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$11.86+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$11.86+1.7%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$11.66+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$11.66+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$11.66+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$11.66+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$11.66-4.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$12.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
