Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 15.56 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 16.53, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.56 USD
Fair value16.53
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Markup15.56+0.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.71-1.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vale S.A. holds its Markup at $15.56. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$15.56
Valuation
31.12 trailing · 7.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity 5.9%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.20%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.92%
Below 5%
5.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $16.53 fair value, 6.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Iron ore cycles mask a value trap
Every skyscraper or battery that needs steel or nickel eventually traces back to Vale's mines in Brazil. Yet we pass despite the 7.1 times forward earnings and a 22 percent gap to our fair value. The business grows revenue at just 3 percent, earns a 7 percent return on equity, and fails the ethical screen outright on revenue purity.
This is the classic cyclical trap. A low multiple on peak commodity earnings often signals the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Unknown moat and single-digit margins leave little room when iron ore prices turn, which they always do.
Analysts still rate it a buy with an 18 dollar median target, but the ethical failure and structural growth limits outweigh any apparent discount. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VALE trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markup · changed$15.56+4.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-16Distribution$14.94-4.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.71Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.