VALE
Vale S.A.
Materials · Diversified Metals & Mining · NYSE (ADR)
$16.63
Close 2026-05-10
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

UNKNOWN MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$70.9B
Trailing P/E
25.20
Forward P/E
8.18
Rev Growth
+2.7%
Profit Margin
7.3%
ROE
6.8%
Analyst Target
$17.22
Recommendation
BUY
About Vale S.A.

Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $17, 81% above fair value of $9. Fails ethical screen (Revenue purity 5.9%). Ranks better than 68% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.25%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.09%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.02%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.06%)FAIL
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 72.5
Score Quality: 33.0
Score Combined: 38.9
Fair Value Est: $9.17 · Margin of Safety: -44.8% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

Unlock with Membership
Opportunity Scores
Valuation93.8
Quality18.7
Cash Flow100.0
Moat40.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity23.6
Liquid Purity74.2
Rev Purity0.0
Compliance31.6
Tier: WATCH · Score: 32.5 · Rank: #4933
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-300.48Pending--
2026-04-280.500.44-11.7%
2026-02-110.630.34-45.2%
2025-10-300.520.64+22.9%
2025-07-310.360.50+37.9%
2025-04-240.410.35-14.5%
2025-02-180.47-0.16-134.0%
2024-10-230.450.37-16.6%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$9.3B$1.9B$3.9B$3.1B$2.6B0.44
2025-12-31$11.1B-$3.8B-$97.0M$4.3B$3.5B
2025-09-30$10.4B$2.7B$3.7B$3.8B$3.4B0.63
2025-06-30$8.8B$2.1B$3.2B$2.7B$2.2B
2025-03-31$8.1B$1.4B$3.0B$2.7B$2.2B0.33
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
No insider transaction data.
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Capital World Investors104.8M$1.7B0.0%
Blackrock Inc.73.8M$1.2B0.0%
FMR, LLC54.2M$892.4M0.0%
Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership47.9M$790.2M0.0%
Morgan Stanley46.0M$758.5M0.0%
Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.27.6M$454.2M0.0%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc25.4M$419.3M0.0%
Lazard Asset Management LLC23.7M$390.3M0.0%
Fisher Asset Management, LLC22.5M$371.1M0.0%
Bank of America Corporation21.8M$359.9M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
4
9
12
25 analysts
2 Months Ago
5
8
12
25 analysts
Last Month
6
8
11
25 analysts
Current
4
9
12
25 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Recent Price History
2026-05-10
$16.63
2026-05-09
$16.63
2026-05-08
$16.49
2026-05-08
$16.49
5D Range
May 8
May 8
May 9
May 10
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$159.4B
Price/Book
1.91
Beta
0.753
Analysts
25
Total Revenue (TTM)
$214.9B
Total Debt
$112.0B
Earnings Growth
+22.0%
Dividend Yield
757.0%
Rec. Mean
2.12
Short Ratio
2.54
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
65,805

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

Upgrade to Elite
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 38.9 (P41 — top 58.9% of scored tickers). Unknown Moat. Ethical FAIL. 25 analysts at Buy.
Price: $16.63 | Target: $17.26 (+4%) | Fair Value: $9.17 (+-45%)
Score
39
Moat
Unknown
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+4%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+2.7%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE6.8%
Forward P/E8.2
Market Cap$70.9B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-30$0.48Pending
2026-04-28$0.50$0.44-11.7%
2026-02-11$0.63$0.34-45.2%
2025-10-30$0.52$0.64+22.9%
2025-07-31$0.36$0.50+37.9%
2025-04-24$0.41$0.35-14.5%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $14.14 (-15%) | Entry: $16.63
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($17.26, 25 analysts)
10$166.30+$6.30 (4%)0.3R
50$831.50+$31.50 (4%)0.3R
100$1,663.00+$63.00 (4%)0.3R
To Fair Value ($9.17)
10$166.30+$-74.60 (-45%)-3.0R
50$831.50+$-373.00 (-45%)-3.0R
100$1,663.00+$-746.00 (-45%)-3.0R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Vale S.A. holds a unknown competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
40.1
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: HMM_CRISIS,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.9%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-4.4%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
1.09
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
95
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.9x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
25.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
SID0.716
GGB0.649
VWO0.647
EEM0.638
FCX0.636
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
BAES.L-0.222
SUKOON.AE-0.196
TAM.KW-0.134
COL.AX-0.131
FRCB-0.130
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Monday
Worst Day
Friday
Best Month
Jan
Worst Month
Jul
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.638494586901412
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+8.7%
Beat Drift Positive %
100.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-3.9%
3M Return
-3.1%
6M Return
+45.8%
12M Return
+87.6%
Momentum Rank
#1102
Momentum Signal
UP

Get our daily market read free. Join thousands of traders.

Free Explorer Access