Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.31, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price87.79 USD
Fair value72.90
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation90.29-2.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-21Read Markdown89.66-2.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-21Read Distribution86.26+1.8% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup112.91-22.2% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
agilon health, inc. holds its Accumulation at $87.79. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$87.79
Valuation
N/A trailing · 38.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
3.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.90%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.77%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
66.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 66.7% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
agilon health, inc.'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 67% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $72.90 fair value estimate, 7.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $72.90, with a range of $72.90 to $83.83, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Senior care platform priced far beyond its numbers
Picture a network of doctors serving retirees where patients pay a steady monthly fee, yet the whole operation is shrinking. Agilon health clears our ethical screen with a straightforward focus on US senior primary care. But the market price sits more than 75% above our fair value estimate and the business shows no sign of turning that around soon.
Forward earnings sit at a negative 208 times while revenue fell 7% and margins remain deeply negative at both the profit and return on equity lines. Fourteen analysts cluster around a hold rating with a median target near our own fair value. The opportunity rating stays at none because the gap between price and reality is simply too wide.
That leaves real downside if growth stays absent and cash keeps burning. Competition in value-based care is intense and execution risk stays elevated. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$87.79+3.4%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$84.90+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$84.90+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$84.90-6.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$90.34+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$90.34+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$90.34+0.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$90.29+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-19Markdown$88.45+7.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 88% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
