Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
The Pennant Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $37.82. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$37.82
Valuation
41.56 trailing · 23.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home health growth story priced above its worth
Picture an ageing relative needing daily nursing visits or hospice care at home. Pennant supplies those services across two segments and has lifted revenue 36 percent lately. Yet the shares sit 4 percent above our fair value, the forward multiple reaches 26 times, and margins remain wafer thin at 3 percent. With no margin of safety and an unknown competitive moat, the opportunity rating stays at none despite the ethical screen clearing.
Analyst targets sit higher at 46 dollars and the consensus reads strong buy, but those views rest on continued rapid expansion that has yet to translate into stronger returns on equity of just 10 percent. The business model itself passes our ethical checks, yet the current price already bakes in optimistic assumptions about scale and reimbursement stability.
Thin profits leave little room for reimbursement cuts or labour cost spikes common in this sector. Without a clearer edge over larger operators, any slowdown in senior demand could quickly compress returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PNTG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$37.82-9.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-08-09Markup$41.95+27.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 27.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Markup$32.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Markup$32.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$32.85Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
