Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.16, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price42.57 USD
Fair value40.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation42.23+0.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markup39.62+7.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-09Read Markdown37.82+12.6% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 15% rise in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup32.85+29.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Pennant Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $42.57. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-26
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$42.57
Valuation
46.41 trailing · 26.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Pennant Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 47% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when PNTG's ethical verdict changes
Today PNTG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home health growth story priced above its worth
Picture an ageing relative needing daily nursing visits or hospice care at home. Pennant supplies those services across two segments and has lifted revenue 36 percent lately. Yet the shares sit 4 percent above our fair value, the forward multiple reaches 26 times, and margins remain wafer thin at 3 percent. With no margin of safety and an unknown competitive moat, the opportunity rating stays at none despite the ethical screen clearing.
Analyst targets sit higher at 46 dollars and the consensus reads strong buy, but those views rest on continued rapid expansion that has yet to translate into stronger returns on equity of just 10 percent. The business model itself passes our ethical checks, yet the current price already bakes in optimistic assumptions about scale and reimbursement stability.
Thin profits leave little room for reimbursement cuts or labour cost spikes common in this sector. Without a clearer edge over larger operators, any slowdown in senior demand could quickly compress returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PNTG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$42.57+0.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$42.23+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-18Markup$40.82+3.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$39.62+4.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$37.82-9.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-08-09Markup$41.95+27.7%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 27.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Markup$32.85+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Markup$32.85+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$32.85Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
