Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Healthcare Services Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $21.89. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$21.89
Valuation
12.80 trailing · 17.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.39%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
51.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 51.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Care home cleaning contracts deliver thin returns
Picture a team keeping nursing homes spotless and the meals flowing. That is the day to day reality for this US services business. Revenue edges forward at just 3 percent a year while net margins sit at 4 percent. The shares trade at 21.9 times forward earnings, almost exactly our fair value of 25.72 against the current 25.31 price. With only a 2 percent margin of safety and an unknown competitive moat, the opportunity rating is none.
The ethical screen clears without issue, and five analysts carry a consensus buy with a 26 target. Yet the low return on equity of 13 percent and modest growth leave little room for meaningful upside once costs and labour pressures are factored in. This is not a broken business, simply one that offers no edge at present valuations.
Risk sits in exposure to tight state and federal healthcare budgets that can squeeze contract pricing at any time. A cyclical value trap is possible if earnings peak while the multiple stays elevated. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HCSG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$22.94-9.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$25.31+13.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.38Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
