NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.09%BTC$76,375+0.29%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 05:00 UTC
The Screen · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Select Medical Holdings Corporation
SEM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.0B · 30,800 employees
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, and outpatient rehabilitation clinics in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.51 USD
At the last full screen 2025-12-31
Screened 2025-12-31 · the tape above runs as of 05:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Select Medical Holdings Corporation holds its Accumulation at $16.51. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2025-12-31
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$16.51
Valuation
15.43 trailing · 11.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2025-12-31 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.1% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2025-12-31 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rehab Hospitals Trade at Break Even Value
Picture a patient moving from critical care into a specialist rehab bed. Select Medical runs those facilities across the United States, yet the shares sit dead on our fair value of 16.50 with a zero margin of safety. Forward earnings sit at 11.9 times, revenue grows only 5 percent, margins are just 2 percent and return on equity reaches 10 percent. No moat is visible and analysts see no upside from the current 16.51 price.
We pass because nothing in the numbers suggests the market has mispriced the business. Thin profitability and modest growth leave little room for error or outperformance. The ethical screen raises no flags, but that alone does not create an investment case when value and price already match.
Reimbursement pressure from insurers and government payers remains a standing risk in this sector. Any slowdown in patient volumes would hit the low margins quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SEM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Accumulation$16.51+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-08-12Accumulation$16.51-0.9%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Accumulation$16.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Accumulation$16.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$16.66Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
