Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.88, read 2026-11-01
Ethical passes the values gate
Price331.68 USD
Fair value447.77
Ethical score88.1/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-31Read Markdown331.68+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-29Read Accumulation331.93-0.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% slide in 1 days
2026-10-28Read Markdown350.92-5.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-10-21Read Accumulation350.92-5.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation holds its Markdown at $331.68. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 117 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 117 days
Price at the screen
$331.68
Valuation
42.31 trailing · 4.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.1
Beta
0.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.25%
Below 5%
Only 2.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Texas Pacific Land clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TPL passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $447.77 fair value, strong competitive moat, 31.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $447.77, with a range of $447.77 to $530.69, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Permian royalties at a tempting multiple
Picture a rancher collecting a cut every time oil flows beneath his land. Texas Pacific Land sits on that exact setup across the Permian, delivering 21 percent revenue growth, 60 percent profit margins and 36 percent return on equity with a strong moat protecting the royalty stream.
Those numbers justify the 28 percent margin of safety at the current price, yet the 5.7 times forward earnings multiple flashes a classic cyclical warning. Peak oil prices can inflate earnings and compress the multiple at the same time, leaving investors holding a value trap once volumes or prices roll over.
Only two analysts cover the name and they sit on a hold rating with a lower target, underscoring the limited visibility that comes with energy cycles. Ethical screen cleared. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$331.68+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown · changed$331.68+1.1%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$327.96-1.2%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$350.92+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
2026-10-14Markup · changed$360.98+6.8%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
