Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price194.23 USD
Fair value130.67
Ethical score77.5/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-03Read Markup215.94-10.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Qualcomm holds its Markup at $194.23. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$194.23
Valuation
22.17 trailing · 19.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 77.5
Beta
1.68
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
9.24%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.70%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.44%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for operating significant R&D centres in Israel focused on semiconductor and wireless technology. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $130.67 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Qualcomm's Slick Tech in a Cyclical Slump
Imagine a world without Qualcomm's wireless tech; smartphones would be a lot less smart. Qualcomm's foundational technologies are the underpinnings of modern connectivity, from gaming to automotive systems. It operates through three segments - Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm Technology Licensing, and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives - each driving innovation in their respective fields. Why it stands out? Despite a cyclical downturn with revenue growth dipping by 4%, Qualcomm's moat remains strong, and its ethical practices pass our screen.
However, with a forward P/E of 15.8x and a market price of $160.74 against our fair value of $130.60, Qualcomm is currently overvalued by 19%. Despite the strong profit margins and ROE, the cyclical nature of the industry means that these metrics are likely near their peaks, which often precedes a cyclical value trap. This is not a sign of a bargain but a warning to be cautious.
Risks are inherent in the cyclical tech sector, and Qualcomm is no exception. With a consensus hold rating from 30 analysts and a median target of $175, the market seems to share our caution. The performance is heavily tied to industry cycles, and betting on a quick recovery is risky. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
QCOM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markup$160.74-3.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-28Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$166.97-2.8%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$171.78+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$171.78+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$171.78-20.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 20.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$215.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-03Markup$215.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
