Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Novartis AG holds its Distribution at $137.70. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$137.70
Valuation
20.80 trailing · 14.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.73%
Below 5%
Only 1.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $185.00 fair value, 0.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Swiss Healthcare Giant, Ethical and Valued
Imagine you're managing health in a world where Novartis AG isn't there to manufacture and distribute life-saving pharmaceuticals. That's a daunting scenario, and it's why Novartis stands out. With a solid 1% annual revenue growth and a robust 23% profit margin, the company is not just ethically sound, passing our ethical screen, but also financially robust. Its stock is trading at $156.24, under our fair value estimate of $180.00, offering a margin of safety of +15%, which makes it an opportunity in our books.
However, the risk is not to be ignored. With a forward P/E of 15.9x, which is reasonable but not screamingly cheap, and a consensus hold rating from 11 analysts with a median target of $160, there's a cautious market sentiment. The company's moat is unknown, which suggests uncertainty about its competitive advantage, and this, coupled with its international exposure, could introduce elements of unpredictability.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVS trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$156.24+1.6%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-07-21Markup$153.76+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$153.76+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$153.76+0.5%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$153.07+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$153.07+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$153.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$153.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$153.07Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
