The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Merck & Co. MRK
Clears the common standard
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Merck & Co., Inc.
read at $131.07
Merck & Co. holds its Markup at $131.07.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 162 days |
| Price | $131.07 |
| Valuation | 36.92 trailing · 13.57 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.21 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $155.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 4.90% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 4.90% |
| Profit margin | 13.59% |
| Debt to equity | 106.94 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 26 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✓ PASSES
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 36.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 15.2%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 19.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Merck fails our ethical screen on debt
Picture a patient relying on Keytruda for survival while the company behind it carries debt that trips our basic ethical checks. Merck shows steady 5% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 19% ROE, yet the screen rules it out before valuation enters the conversation.
We pass because the debt ratio breach outweighs the moderate moat and the 22% gap between the $127.50 price and our $155 fair value. Forward earnings sit at 13.2 times, analysts lean buy with a $139 median target, but none of that clears the ethical bar we set on leverage.
The real exposure is simple: high debt leaves less room if new competition hits oncology sales or if rates stay higher for longer. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 13.6x expensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 36.9x expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| Revenue growth | 4.9% slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 13.6% thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 18.9% a solid return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 1.07 a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 1.30 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.21 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $323.7B |
| Employees | 73,000 |
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on MRK
- › MRNA Q2 Earnings Meet, Stock Down on Norovirus Vaccine Setback Zacks · 1d ago
- › Moderna Stock Has Doubled This Year. Can Earnings Keep the Rally Alive? Barrons.com · 2d ago
- › Here Comes the Next Wave of GLP-1s. They’ll Treat a Lot More Than Obesity. Barrons.com · 2d ago
- › The Signs Before Eli Lilly Stock Surged Were All On The Record Trefis · 2d ago
- › LLY Stock: Collect 12% Now, In Exchange For Capping Upside At 15% Trefis · 2d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in MRK's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MRK trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Guindo Chirfi | CMO | Sale | 10,000 | $1,214,562 |
| 2026-02-10 | Li Dean Y | EVP, Pres, MRL | Sale | 10,235 | $1,202,844 |
| 2026-02-09 | Guindo Chirfi | CMO | Sale | 10,000 | $1,184,101 |
| 2026-02-09 | Zachary Jennifer | EVP, GC | Sale | 121,573 | $14,485,690 |
| 2026-02-06 | Williams David Michael | EVP,Chief Info, Digital Office | Sale | 5,000 | $609,525 |
| 2026-02-04 | Smart Dalton E. III | SVP Fin. - Global Controller | Sale | 6,400 | $765,920 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oosthuizen Johannes Jacobus | Pres, U.S. Market | Sale | 15,000 | $1,827,992 |
| 2026-02-04 | Litchfield Caroline | EVP, CFO | Sale | 41,997 | $5,023,312 |
| 2026-02-04 | Li Dean Y | EVP, Pres, MRL | Sale | 15,087 | $1,791,824 |
| 2026-02-05 | Guindo Chirfi | CMO | Sale | 20,000 | $2,437,676 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $111.28 | +7.1% | · | $1,071 | +7.1% |
| 2 months | $121.42 | -1.9% | · | $981 | -1.9% |
| 3 months | $115.06 | +3.6% | $0.85 | $1,043 | +4.3% |
| 6 months | $97.45 | +22.3% | $1.70 | $1,240 | +24.0% |
| 1 year | $78.50 | +51.8% | $3.32 | $1,560 | +56.0% |
| 2 years | $123.23 | -3.3% | $6.48 | $1,019 | +1.9% |
| 3 years | $100.99 | +18.0% | $9.48 | $1,274 | +27.4% |
| 5 years | $65.16 | +82.9% | $15.00 | $2,059 | +105.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.