Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-24
Options put/call open interest 0.83, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price150.36 USD
Fair value183.57
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup150.36+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-18Read Distribution145.19+3.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Markdown148.78+1.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Accumulation148.78+1.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 23% rise in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Merck & Co. holds its Markup at $150.36. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$150.36
Valuation
116.13 trailing · 15.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.70%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.53%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Merck &'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 18% discount to our $183.57 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 5.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $183.57, with a range of $152.36 to $253.94, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 5%-growth business trading at just 15.8x forward earnings, with a moderate competitive moat. That is an 18% discount to our $183.57 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 26 analysts rate it Buy with a $164.00 average target, about 9% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$150.36+3.5%Entry 23
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-10-29Distribution$145.27+0.1%Entry 22
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$145.19+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
