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The Screen · Basic Materials · Gold
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
HMY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $9.5B · 34,350 employees
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.41 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 12:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price16.41 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.59x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.48, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.41 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown17.98-8.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 21% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-01Read Markup22.81-28.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 41% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-01Read Distribution16.15+1.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup15.86+3.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited holds its Markdown at $16.41. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$16.41
Valuation
5.51 trailing · 4.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
119.99%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 120.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
66.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 66.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.12%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Harmony Gold Mining's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 120% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when HMY's ethical verdict changes
Today HMY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.59x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner looks cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a South African shaft where every extra ounce of gold flows straight to the bottom line right now. Harmony shows revenue up 20 percent, a 20 percent profit margin and 33 percent return on equity, all on a forward multiple of 4.4 times. The numbers make it look like a classic value opportunity with a strong moat and a 35 percent gap to our fair value.
Yet the ethical screen stops us cold because of the debt ratio, and the cyclical nature of gold mining adds a second layer of caution. Low multiples in this sector often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the next downturn can erase years of apparent gains.
Three analysts still rate the shares a buy with a 22 dollar median target, but we treat that as market noise rather than a signal. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to South Africa and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HMY trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Markdown$15.83-7.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-23Markdown$17.12+2.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-16Markdown$16.71-7.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$17.98-21.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-09-01Markup · changed$22.81+41.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 41.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$15.86Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
