Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.55, read 2026-11-03
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price64.11 USD
Fair value84.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Distribution64.11+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 22% slide in 6 days
2026-10-29Read Accumulation81.82-21.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-27Read Markdown85.32-24.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-20Read Distribution85.47-25.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 7 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aura Minerals Inc. holds its Distribution at $64.11. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$64.11
Valuation
24.10 trailing · 10.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.99%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Aura Minerals clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $84.25 fair value, 76.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $84.25, with a range of $74.70 to $96.89, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miners look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a miner pulling ore from the ground in Brazil or Honduras while the gold price swings like a pendulum. Aura Minerals shows eye watering revenue growth and a forward multiple of just 4.5 times earnings, yet those figures sit inside a notoriously cyclical industry where peak margins rarely last.
We pass on this name despite the ethical screen clearing and a reported 40 percent return on equity. The low multiple and analyst targets above 90 dollars flag classic cyclical value trap territory, where earnings look stretched at the top of the commodity cycle and any drop in metal prices quickly erodes the apparent bargain.
Currency swings, operational hiccups at remote sites and sudden shifts in gold demand all sit on the risk side, even with an 8 percent profit margin today. The margin of safety implied by our fair value does not offset the structural volatility of the sector. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AUGO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$66.22+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$66.22+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$66.22-19.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 19.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$81.82+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$81.82+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown · changed$85.32-0.2%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.