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The Screen · Basic Materials · Gold
Aura Minerals Inc.
AUGO · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $7.2B
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas.
Not yet scored
85.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Aura Minerals Inc. holds its Accumulation at $85.77. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$85.77
Valuation
24.03 trailing · 10.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miners look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a miner pulling ore from the ground in Brazil or Honduras while the gold price swings like a pendulum. Aura Minerals shows eye watering revenue growth and a forward multiple of just 4.5 times earnings, yet those figures sit inside a notoriously cyclical industry where peak margins rarely last.
We pass on this name despite the ethical screen clearing and a reported 40 percent return on equity. The low multiple and analyst targets above 90 dollars flag classic cyclical value trap territory, where earnings look stretched at the top of the commodity cycle and any drop in metal prices quickly erodes the apparent bargain.
Currency swings, operational hiccups at remote sites and sudden shifts in gold demand all sit on the risk side, even with an 8 percent profit margin today. The margin of safety implied by our fair value does not offset the structural volatility of the sector. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AUGO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$74.13+47.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 47.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101.
2026-07-22Distribution$50.22-17.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101.
2026-07-18Distribution$60.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101.
2026-07-03Distribution$60.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$60.89Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.