Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
B2Gold Corp. holds its Markup at $5.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$5.38
Valuation
9.61 trailing · 4.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.41%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miners Flash Cheap Numbers in a Trap
Picture a miner boasting record output while the gold price sits near highs. B2Gold shows revenue up 118 percent, a 15 percent profit margin and 17 percent ROE, all at a forward multiple of just 3.4 times. On paper the valuation sits well below our fair value of 4.95 against the current 3.67 price. Yet the opportunity rating stays at none because this is a classic cyclical setup where peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples.
We pass because the numbers reflect a temporary gold-price tailwind rather than durable advantage. An unknown moat, operations spread across Mali, Namibia and the Philippines, and no clear edge over larger producers all point to earnings that can fall as quickly as they rose. Analyst targets around 6 dollars ignore how quickly margins compress once the metal price turns.
Risk sits in the cyclical value trap itself. Revenue growth at this pace rarely repeats, and any drop in gold or a spike in local costs would crush the apparent bargain. Ethical screen passes cleanly, yet the business remains exposed to commodity swings and jurisdiction noise that no low multiple can fully offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BTG trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$4.09+11.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Markup$4.21+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Markup$4.21+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$4.21Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
