An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Alamos Gold Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $28.79
Alamos Gold Inc holds its Distribution at $28.79.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 87 days
Price
$28.79
Valuation
11.85 trailing · 8.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.33
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$28.79
11.85 P/E · 8.97 fwd
Our fair value
$36.31
26% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$45.50
+58% to current
Target low $39.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $60.00
▲ current $28.79 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$28.79
you are here
Conservative
$35.10
+22%
Analyst avg
$45.50
+58%
Our fair value
$36.31
+26%
Analyst high
$60.00
+108%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
79.20%
Profit margin
51.24%
Debt to equity
4.77
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold miner numbers shine but cycle warns
Think of gold prices as a wild tide that lifts miners one year and strands them the next. Alamos shows 79% revenue growth, 51% profit margins and 26% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with a narrow moat and an ethical pass.
Those figures point to a business that looks undervalued against our fair value and carries a strong buy consensus from analysts. The margin of safety sits near 29% on current pricing.
Gold mining stays a cyclical trap though, where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Metal prices and currency moves can erase gains fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in AGI's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56. Entered 2026-07-20 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Distribution$28.26-19.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-16Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AGI
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Sale
1K–15K
2 Jun2026
John Curtis
Republican
sell
1K–15K
13 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$43.90
-24.2%
·
$758
-24.2%
2 months
$48.48
-31.3%
·
$687
-31.3%
3 months
$48.52
-31.4%
$0.04
$687
-31.3%
6 months
$38.42
-13.4%
$0.04
$868
-13.2%
1 year
$26.76
+24.4%
$0.07
$1,246
+24.6%
2 years
$16.04
+107.6%
$0.17
$2,086
+108.6%
3 years
$12.18
+173.3%
$0.27
$2,755
+175.5%
5 years
$8.47
+292.8%
$0.47
$3,983
+298.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AGI does next, these words stay.
Alamos Gold Inc · AGI · Distribution · $28.79
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
