Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 9.17, read 2026-10-31
Ethical passes the values gate
Price27.45 USD
Fair value33.10
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Distribution31.98-14.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markdown31.53-12.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution35.21-22.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-21Read Markup32.85-16.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% slide in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alamos Gold Inc holds its Distribution at $27.45. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$27.45
Valuation
10.90 trailing · 10.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.82%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Alamos Gold clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 3%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AGI's ethical verdict changes
Today AGI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner numbers shine but cycle warns
Think of gold prices as a wild tide that lifts miners one year and strands them the next. Alamos shows 79% revenue growth, 51% profit margins and 26% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with a narrow moat and an ethical pass.
Those figures point to a business that looks undervalued against our fair value and carries a strong buy consensus from analysts. The margin of safety sits near 29% on current pricing.
Gold mining stays a cyclical trap though, where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Metal prices and currency moves can erase gains fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGI trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Distribution$30.30-5.3%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$31.53-10.5%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-09-21Markup$35.76+8.9%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$32.85+16.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-20Distribution$28.26-19.7%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-16Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
