NAS10028,938−0.65%S&P7,586−0.45%GOLD$4,386+1.22%BTC$75,952+0.45%VIX16.74−2.67%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Gold
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
HMY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.6B · 34,350 employees
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
20.19 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited holds its Markup at $20.19. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$20.19
Valuation
6.96 trailing · 6.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
119.99%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 120.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
66.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 66.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads CLASSICAL ONLY: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $23.50 fair value, strong competitive moat, 49.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner looks cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a South African shaft where every extra ounce of gold flows straight to the bottom line right now. Harmony shows revenue up 20 percent, a 20 percent profit margin and 33 percent return on equity, all on a forward multiple of 4.4 times. The numbers make it look like a classic value opportunity with a strong moat and a 35 percent gap to our fair value.
Yet the ethical screen stops us cold because of the debt ratio, and the cyclical nature of gold mining adds a second layer of caution. Low multiples in this sector often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the next downturn can erase years of apparent gains.
Three analysts still rate the shares a buy with a 22 dollar median target, but we treat that as market noise rather than a signal. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to South Africa and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HMY trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup · changed$22.81+41.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 41.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$15.86Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
