An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $16.15
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited holds its Distribution at $16.15.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price
$16.15
Valuation
10.56 trailing · 4.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.71
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads CLASSICAL ONLY — it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $21.80 fair value, strong competitive moat, 19.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$16.15
10.56 P/E · 4.84 fwd
Our fair value
$21.80
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$22.00
+36% to current
Target low $16.68Analyst target rangeTarget high $23.50
▲ current $16.15 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.15
you are here
Conservative
$21.17
+31%
Analyst avg
$22.00
+36%
Our fair value
$21.80
+35%
Analyst high
$23.50
+46%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
19.50%
Profit margin
20.06%
Debt to equity
25.47
Analyst consensus
Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 120.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 66.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold miner looks cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a South African shaft where every extra ounce of gold flows straight to the bottom line right now. Harmony shows revenue up 20 percent, a 20 percent profit margin and 33 percent return on equity, all on a forward multiple of 4.4 times. The numbers make it look like a classic value opportunity with a strong moat and a 35 percent gap to our fair value.
Yet the ethical screen stops us cold because of the debt ratio, and the cyclical nature of gold mining adds a second layer of caution. Low multiples in this sector often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the next downturn can erase years of apparent gains.
Three analysts still rate the shares a buy with a 22 dollar median target, but we treat that as market noise rather than a signal. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HMY trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Markup$15.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$15.86Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$18.13
-20.5%
·
$795
-20.5%
2 months
$16.27
-11.4%
$0.31
$906
-9.4%
3 months
$15.67
-8.0%
$0.31
$940
-6.0%
6 months
$20.19
-28.6%
$0.31
$730
-27.0%
1 year
$14.31
+0.7%
$0.31
$1,029
+2.9%
2 years
$8.00
+80.2%
$0.48
$1,862
+86.2%
3 years
$4.30
+235.2%
$0.60
$3,492
+249.2%
5 years
$4.35
+231.5%
$0.66
$3,467
+246.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HMY does next, these words stay.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited · HMY · Distribution · $16.15
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
