Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Austra…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.88, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price230.92 USD
Fair value208.84
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Markup241.95-4.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution250.11-7.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-09-11Read Markup258.38-10.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 24% rise in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution207.57+11.2% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Royal Gold Inc holds its Markup at $230.92. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$230.92
Valuation
25.93 trailing · 18.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.81%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.40%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Royal Gold clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 9%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today RGLD passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $208.84 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 115.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $208.84, with a range of $200.70 to $240.17, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold royalties hide a classic cycle trap
Gold royalty firms collect a slice every time metal leaves the ground, no drills or dust for them. Royal Gold sits in that stream, posting big revenue growth and nearly half profits as margin. Yet the forward multiple sits at fourteen times while the industry cycles hard.
That combination screams value trap more than bargain. Earnings look peaky right now, the moat stays narrow, and our fair value sits only eleven percent above the current price. Analysts may like it, but the cyclical lens says otherwise.
Gold price swings and limited pricing power create the real downside here. Ethical checks clear, yet the opportunity rating stays none for good reason.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RGLD trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$228.77+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$228.77+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$228.77+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$228.77-3.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$236.83-2.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup · changed$241.95+3.3%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$234.11+0.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$233.00-1.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Distribution$236.23-5.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
