Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Austra…
Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Royal Gold Inc holds its Markup at $258.38. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$258.38
Valuation
28.65 trailing · 20.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.81%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.40%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold royalties hide a classic cycle trap
Gold royalty firms collect a slice every time metal leaves the ground, no drills or dust for them. Royal Gold sits in that stream, posting big revenue growth and nearly half profits as margin. Yet the forward multiple sits at fourteen times while the industry cycles hard.
That combination screams value trap more than bargain. Earnings look peaky right now, the moat stays narrow, and our fair value sits only eleven percent above the current price. Analysts may like it, but the cyclical lens says otherwise.
Gold price swings and limited pricing power create the real downside here. Ethical checks clear, yet the opportunity rating stays none for good reason.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RGLD trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Markup · changed$258.38+31.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 31.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327.
2026-08-11Distribution$196.16-5.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327.
2026-07-18Distribution$207.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327.
2026-07-03Distribution$207.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$207.57Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
