Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.67, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price97.92 USD
Fair value169.89
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markdown105.48-7.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 7 days
2026-10-14Read Accumulation113.71-13.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown112.27-12.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markup123.64-20.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 34% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Futu Holdings Limited holds its Markdown at $97.92. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$97.92
Valuation
9.77 trailing · 7.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
113.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 113.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
814.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 814.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Futu does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FUTU does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 42% discount to our $169.89 fair value, strong competitive moat, 35.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 42.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $169.89, with a range of $139.75 to $195.84, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Futu looks cheap until the debt screen bites
Picture a young trader in Shenzhen opening an app to buy US tech names without wrestling mainland brokers. Futu built that bridge and now clears revenue at 29 percent growth with 45 percent profit margins and 28 percent ROE. The numbers scream quality and the forward multiple sits at just 7.8 times, yet the stock still fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason. Strong moat or not, the leverage profile clashes with the standards we apply to every name. Analyst targets cluster around 142 against the current 95 price, but none of that moves the ethical line.
The risk sits in how fast retail flows can reverse when sentiment sours in Hong Kong or the mainland. One bad cycle and the debt load becomes a heavier anchor than the growth story can offset. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FUTU trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$102.61-2.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-28Markdown$105.48+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-21Markdown · changed$105.48-7.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$112.27-9.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-08-30Markup · changed$123.64+21.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-30Distribution$101.84+10.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-18Distribution$92.33+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-03Distribution$92.33+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$92.33Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
