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The Screen · Financials
Futu Holdings Limited
FUTU · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $16.4B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
116.74 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Futu Holdings Limited holds its Markup at $116.74. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$116.74
Valuation
11.63 trailing · 9.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
113.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 113.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
814.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 814.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Futu looks cheap until the debt screen bites
Picture a young trader in Shenzhen opening an app to buy US tech names without wrestling mainland brokers. Futu built that bridge and now clears revenue at 29 percent growth with 45 percent profit margins and 28 percent ROE. The numbers scream quality and the forward multiple sits at just 7.8 times, yet the stock still fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason. Strong moat or not, the leverage profile clashes with the standards we apply to every name. Analyst targets cluster around 142 against the current 95 price, but none of that moves the ethical line.
The risk sits in how fast retail flows can reverse when sentiment sours in Hong Kong or the mainland. One bad cycle and the debt load becomes a heavier anchor than the growth story can offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FUTU trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup · changed$123.64+21.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-30Distribution$101.84+10.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-18Distribution$92.33+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-03Distribution$92.33+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$92.33Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
