An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Epsilon Energy Ltd., a North American onshore independent natural gas and oil company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, gathering, and production of natural oil and gas reserves.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $5.52
Epsilon Energy Ltd. holds its Distribution at $5.52.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 175 days
Price
$5.52
Valuation
N/A trailing · 14.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.8
Beta
-0.18
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY — it trades above our $2.76 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 58.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$5.52
N/A P/E · 14.92 fwd
Our fair value
$2.76
50% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$5.52
you are here
Conservative
$2.76
-50%
Our fair value
$2.76
-50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
58.40%
Profit margin
-14.89%
Debt to equity
37.10
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 27.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gas producer priced well above its worth
Every boom in natural gas sends small explorers racing to drill, and revenue here has jumped 58 percent. Yet the firm still posts a 15 percent negative profit margin and an 8 percent negative return on equity, with only a weak moat protecting any gains once prices turn.
The shares trade at 5.52 dollars against a fair value of 2.76 dollars, a 50 percent premium, even on a forward multiple of 14.9 times. In a cyclical industry that pattern often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and nothing in the numbers suggests the cycle has changed.
Currency swings, reserve write-downs and thin margins remain live threats despite clearing the ethical screen. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
EPSN trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. Entered 2026-07-27 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Markup$5.52-4.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-07-18Markup$5.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%.
2026-07-03Markup$5.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$5.79Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · EPSN
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-04-01
WILLIAMSON JAMES ANDREW
Chief Financial Officer
2,540
·
2026-04-01
STABELL JASON
Chief Executive Officer
6,097
·
2026-03-31
STABELL JASON
Chief Executive Officer
20,000
$124,180
2026-03-30
SOLAS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
